Economists at the country's largest lender SBI on Wednesday said they see Q2 real GDP growth slowing down further to 6.5 per cent in the September quarter of this fiscal year. Amid concerns over the country's economic growth rate and if it is slowing down, the analysts said they expect FY25 growth to come "closer to" 7 per cent. It can be noted that the April-June period saw the real GDP expanding by 6.7 per cent, the lowest in 15 quarters.
Following through announcements with enforcement of measures is key, as a run through recent Indian economic history shows, points out A K Bhattacharya.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday slashed its estimate of India's GDP growth during the 2020 calendar year to 2.5 per cent from an earlier estimate of 5.3 per cent, on account of the rising economic cost of the coronavirus pandemic.
Forecasting 7.2 per cent GDP growth for the current fiscal, industry chamber CII on Tuesday stressed on sustainable development for alleviating poverty and employment generation in the country.
India economy clocked a five-year high growth rate of 7.6 per cent in 2015-16.
It said that the GDP growth has averaged 7.3 per cent from 2014-15 to 2017-18, which is the highest among the major economies of the world.
India's GDP growth for the current fiscal is expected to slow down to 4.8 per cent, a UN report has said, warning that the Covid-19 pandemic is expected to result in significant adverse economic impacts globally. The UN 'Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) 2020: Towards sustainable economies' said that Covid-19 is having far-reaching economic and social consequences for the region, with strong cross-border spillover effects through trade, tourism and financial linkages.
India's economic growth rate this fiscal is estimated to be sharply lower at 5 per cent, lowest in a decade, on account of poor performance of manufacturing, agriculture and services sector.
If this turns into reality, India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth will be the lowest since 2012-13, which could severely hit job creation and income growth in the near term.
The Indian economy is likely to witness close to double-digit growth in the current fiscal year despite the second COVID-19 wave ravaging the country, Principal Economic Adviser (PEA) Sanjeev Sanyal said on Wednesday. The economy is slowly getting back to normalcy as the number of COVID-19 cases is declining, he said while participating in India Global Forum event. "We are probably going to see close to double-digit, if not double-digit (growth) in this financial year," he said.
India's likely medium-term potential growth will almost certainly be markedly lower than that experienced in pre-pandemic years, warns Shankar Acharya, former chief economic advisor to the Government of India.
India is the second-most-preferred destination among chief executive officers planning international investments - up from the fifth spot last year, according to PwC's 29th Annual Global CEO Survey released on Tuesday. The United States is their first choice.
GDP growth for the current year is expected to be about 8.5 per cent while inflation likely to be below five per cent, Reserve Bank of India Governor Y V Reddy said in Chennai on Friday. "For the current year, though subject to review, current expectations is GDP growth will be 8.5 per cent.Inflation would be below five percent," he said at a management seminar conducted by the Great Lakes Institute of Management.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest World Economic Outlook report, has slashed its forecast for India's FY23 gross domestic product growth to 8.2 per cent from 9 per cent, saying that higher commodity prices will weigh on private consumption and investment. This was one of the steepest cuts for emerging economies compared to the IMF's January WEO forecasts. Saying that global economic prospects have worsened significantly due to commodity price volatility and disruption of supply chains caused by the war in Europe, IMF cut its global growth outlook for calendar year 2022 to 3.6 per cent from 4.4 per cent, and said both Russia and Ukraine could experience large GDP contractions.
India's economy could reach $20.7 trillion in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) by 2030 and may emerge as the second-largest economy by 2038 with $34.2 trillion GDP, an EY report said on Wednesday. The report also said that with appropriate countermeasures, India can limit the adverse impact of higher US tariffs on selected Indian imports to about 10 basis points of real GDP growth.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday delivered a 25 basis point (bps) repo rate cut analysts expected, driven by the strong 8.2 per cent GDP growth in the September quarter. However, analysts do not expect a runaway market rally as the impact of US tariffs continues.
The benchmark BSE Sensex's trailing 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple has declined to 20.2x, its lowest since May 2020, driven by a record $42 billion FPI selloff since September 2024 and concerns over corporate earnings and economic growth.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday retained the GDP growth forecast at 9.5 per cent for the current fiscal but cautioned that the economic recovery is not yet strong enough to be self-sustaining and durable.
Poor rainfall in rain-dependent central and southern India in the next three weeks could affect agricultural GDP growth in the coming season, a report by broking firm Motilal Oswal has said.
NCAER said the monetary policy measures are unlikely to revive growth at this juncture and suggested providing fiscal stimulus, which too can be challenging unless it can be financed through better revenue generation.
The overall gross domestic product growth for 2004-05 is expected to be 6-6.5 per cent, taking into account risks of high and uncertain oil prices and changes in international liquidity environment, says RBI's report on currency and finance 2003-04.
Asian Development Bank on Thursday pegged India's economic growth at 7.4 per cent for 2004 and said high growth is likely to be sustained in medium term.
The Indian economy is expected to grow around 10 per cent during the current financial year on the likelihood of fewer COVID-19-linked supply disruptions and buoyancy in the global economy, said Poonam Gupta, director general of economic think-tank NCAER. The real challenge, however, would be to sustain a growth rate of 7-8 per cent in years to come, she said. "We could see annual growth in the ballpark range of about 10 per cent. "The reasons for this perceived optimism are: fewer supply disruptions; increased pent-up demand in the traditional and contact-intensive services; and a buoyant global economy.
'Once the market decides it wants to go up, it goes up -- no amount of bad news can really hold it back.'
'Even if the war ends tomorrow, which is unlikely, and we go back to the pre-war status quo, the world will still need some time to get over the sudden shock of oil price increases.'
Foreign investment firm Credit Suisse First Boston said on Thursday that delayed monsoon is unlikely to have a "significant impact" on India's economic growth pegged at 5.7 per cent in 2004-05.
A ramp-up in COVID-19 vaccination, healthy advance estimates of kharif (summer) crop and faster government spending were the factors which led to the revision, the agency said in a statement. It can be noted that after the 7.3 per cent contraction in 2020-21, there were expectations of a higher growth number in 2021-22.
The government on Friday said the economy may have expanded by 4.5 per cent in 2012-13, compared with the earlier estimate of 5 per cent, on account of subdued performance in agriculture, mining and manufacturing.
Optimism comes at a time when several agencies trimmed forecast to as low as 5.5% citing inaction policy paralysis as major growth impediment
While participants in the domestic financial market are expecting a 25 basis-point policy repo rate cut in the December meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), economists remain torn between a reduction in rate cut and a pause.
The Indian rupee crashed to a record closing low against the US dollar due to rising global crude oil prices, a strengthening dollar, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Beside manufacturing, deceleration was also witnessed in sectors like agriculture, construction and electricity, gas and water supply.
'The outlook for the next Samvat is more constructive, as many of the earlier drags are gradually becoming supports.'
A look at six indicators shows all of them have collapsed from positive growth in April to contraction in September.
World Bank has predicted a downward trend for India's GDP in 2008. China to follow too.
India has managed high government debt-to-GDP, a slowing domestic revenue engine, lower household savings and a more hostile geopolitical environment separately in the past. But together, they threaten to undo the growth narrative on which today's optimism rests, warns Debashis Basu.
Investors are sceptical that the economy could have picked up so much steam.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) infused Rs 22,615 crore into Indian equities in February, marking the highest monthly inflow in 17 months, driven by factors such as the interim India-US trade deal, correction in domestic market valuations, and strong corporate earnings.
'The real risk is not that AI will fail to transform India's economy.'
'The risk is that it already is -- while our measurement systems continue to look the other way,' observes Nishant Sahdev, a theoretical physicist at the University of North Carolina.
NSO has pegged economic growth at 5 per cent in 2019-20 in its second advance estimates.
